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Fort Lauderdale United vs FC Miami City — USL League Two 2026

Fort Lauderdale United
Fort Lauderdale United
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Miami City
FC Miami City
5/28/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 6FTL UTD Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fort Lauderdale United66%
×Draw21%
FC Miami City13%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fort Lauderdale United
1.94
FC Miami City
0.72

Fort Lauderdale United creates 169% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Fort Lauderdale United
2.00
FC Miami City
1.11

allows per match

Fort Lauderdale United
0.33
FC Miami City
1.89

finishing

Fort Lauderdale United+0.00on par
FC Miami City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fort Lauderdale United ↓

FC Miami City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fort Lauderdale United or draw
87%
Fort Lauderdale United or FC Miami City
79%
Draw or FC Miami City
34%

Winning margin

Fort Lauderdale United wins by 2+
40%
FC Miami City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Fort Lauderdale United 1+ goals
86%
Fort Lauderdale United 2+ goals
58%
Fort Lauderdale United 3+ goals
30%
FC Miami City 1+ goals
51%
FC Miami City 2+ goals
16%
FC Miami City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fort Lauderdale United (draw refunded)
83%
FC Miami City (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fort Lauderdale United at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches

FC Miami City away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fort Lauderdale United attack 2.00 + FC Miami City defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.94

FC Miami City attack 1.11 + Fort Lauderdale United defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Fort Lauderdale United scores more
66%
level
21%
FC Miami City scores more
13%

Fort Lauderdale United at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Fort Lauderdale United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Fort Lauderdale United 2–0 FC Miami City

Fort Lauderdale United beat FC Miami City 2-0 in USL League Two on May 28, 2025.

The match was played at FTL UTD Stadium.