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FC Miami City vs Fort Lauderdale United — USL League Two 2026

FC Miami City
FC Miami City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Fort Lauderdale United
Fort Lauderdale United
6/21/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 14Monsignor Pace High School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

FC Miami City23%
×Draw23%
Fort Lauderdale United54%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Miami City
1.14
Fort Lauderdale United
1.86

Fort Lauderdale United creates 63% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC Miami City
0.89
Fort Lauderdale United
1.50

allows per match

FC Miami City
2.22
Fort Lauderdale United
1.38

finishing

FC Miami City+0.00on par
Fort Lauderdale United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Miami City ↓

Fort Lauderdale United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Miami City or draw
46%
FC Miami City or Fort Lauderdale United
77%
Draw or Fort Lauderdale United
77%

Winning margin

FC Miami City wins by 2+
9%
Fort Lauderdale United wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

FC Miami City 1+ goals
68%
FC Miami City 2+ goals
32%
FC Miami City 3+ goals
11%
Fort Lauderdale United 1+ goals
84%
Fort Lauderdale United 2+ goals
55%
Fort Lauderdale United 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

FC Miami City (draw refunded)
30%
Fort Lauderdale United (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Miami City at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

Fort Lauderdale United away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Miami City attack 0.89 + Fort Lauderdale United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Fort Lauderdale United attack 1.50 + FC Miami City defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FC Miami City scores more
23%
level
23%
Fort Lauderdale United scores more
54%

Fort Lauderdale United at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Fort Lauderdale United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: FC Miami City 1–1 Fort Lauderdale United

FC Miami City and Fort Lauderdale United drew 1-1 in USL League Two on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Monsignor Pace High School Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.