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Formartine United vs Brora Rangers — League #730 2026

Formartine United
Formartine United
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Brora Rangers
Brora Rangers
11/1/2025League #730League #730 · Highland League - 16North Lodge Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Formartine United29%
×Draw19%
Brora Rangers52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Formartine United
1.94
Brora Rangers
2.61

Brora Rangers creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

creates per match

Formartine United
2.67
Brora Rangers
3.22

allows per match

Formartine United
2.00
Brora Rangers
1.22

finishing

Formartine United+0.00on par
Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Formartine United ↓

Brora Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Formartine United or draw
48%
Formartine United or Brora Rangers
81%
Draw or Brora Rangers
71%

Winning margin

Formartine United wins by 2+
15%
Brora Rangers wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Formartine United 1+ goals
86%
Formartine United 2+ goals
58%
Formartine United 3+ goals
30%
Brora Rangers 1+ goals
93%
Brora Rangers 2+ goals
73%
Brora Rangers 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Formartine United (draw refunded)
36%
Brora Rangers (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Formartine United at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Brora Rangers away — creates 3.22, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Formartine United attack 2.67 + Brora Rangers defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.94

Brora Rangers attack 3.22 + Formartine United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Formartine United scores more
29%
level
19%
Brora Rangers scores more
52%

Brora Rangers at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Brora Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #730: Formartine United 3–3 Brora Rangers

Formartine United and Brora Rangers drew 3-3 in League #730 on November 1, 2025.

The match was played at North Lodge Park in Pitmedden.