Brora Rangers 2–1 Formartine United: Result & Stats

Brora Rangers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Formartine United

C. Williamson 81'

A. MacLeod 50'

J. Wade 15'

10/26/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundDudgeon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Brora Rangers34%

×Draw23%

Formartine United42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Brora RangersExpected goals in this matchFormartine United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.69

Brora Rangers

1.50

Formartine United

1.69

Formartine United creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.63

creates per match

2.38

1.00

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Brora Rangers

1.63

Formartine United

2.38

allows per match

Brora Rangers

1.00

Formartine United

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Brora Rangers+0.00on par

Formartine United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brora Rangers ↓

Formartine United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Brora Rangers or draw

58%

Brora Rangers or Formartine United

77%

Draw or Formartine United

66%

Winning margin

Brora Rangers wins by 2+

16%

Formartine United wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Brora Rangers 1+ goals

78%

Brora Rangers 2+ goals

44%

Brora Rangers 3+ goals

19%

Formartine United 1+ goals

82%

Formartine United 2+ goals

50%

Formartine United 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Brora Rangers (draw refunded)

45%

Formartine United (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brora Rangers at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Formartine United away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brora Rangers attack 1.63 + Formartine United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Formartine United attack 2.38 + Brora Rangers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Brora Rangers scores more

34%

level

23%

Formartine United scores more

42%

Formartine United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Formartine United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

J. Wade↳ T. Mykyta

42'

A. MacLeod← A. Sutherland

46'

S. Smith← L. Strachan

50'

A. MacLeod↳ M. Ewan

70'

R. Ward← P. Campbell

76'

A. Macrae← J. Wallace

77'

G. Robesten← M. Ewan

81'

C. Williamson↳ C. Mackenzie

83'

M. Dangana← T. Mykyta

Brora

Formartine

1

MacDonald

3

▼

4

5

2

8

11

6

10

A

▼

Mykyta

7

⚽

Wade

9

▼

Campbell

1

Mackay

5

Nicolson

3

⚽

4

12

7

22

A

Mackenzie

10

Sutherlan

16

▼

Sutherlan

11

▼

Wallace

17

A

▼

Ewan

Manager: S. Mackay

42'▲A. MacLeod←▼A. Sutherland

76'▲A. Macrae←▼J. Wallace

77'▲G. Robesten←▼M. Ewan

Brora Rangers substitutes

8MacLeod14Macrae19Robesten18Cooper21Gillan15Gamble6McRitchie

Manager: S. Anderson

46'▲S. Smith←▼L. Strachan

70'▲R. Ward←▼P. Campbell

83'▲M. Dangana←▼T. Mykyta

Formartine United substitutes

16Smith15Ward12Dangana14Clark18McCormick17Combe21Middleton

FA Cup: Brora Rangers 2–1 Formartine United

Brora Rangers beat Formartine United 2-1 in FA Cup on October 26, 2024.

Goals: J. Wade (15'), A. MacLeod (50'), C. Williamson (81').

The match was played at Dudgeon Park in Brora.

Brora Rangers vs Formartine United — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Brora Rangers 2–1 Formartine United