Forfar Athletic 2–1 Arbroath: Result & Stats

Forfar Athletic

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Arbroath

D. Hilson 69', 37'

M. McKenna 19'

3/30/2019

League #183 · Round 31Station Park (Forfar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Forfar Athletic21%

×Draw20%

Arbroath59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forfar AthleticExpected goals in this matchArbroath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.29

Forfar Athletic

1.31

Arbroath

2.29

Arbroath creates 75% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

0.83

creates per match

2.40

2.17

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Forfar Athletic

0.83

Arbroath

2.40

allows per match

Forfar Athletic

2.17

Arbroath

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forfar Athletic+0.00on par

Arbroath+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forfar Athletic ↓

Arbroath →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Forfar Athletic or draw

41%

Forfar Athletic or Arbroath

80%

Draw or Arbroath

79%

Winning margin

Forfar Athletic wins by 2+

9%

Arbroath wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Forfar Athletic 1+ goals

73%

Forfar Athletic 2+ goals

38%

Forfar Athletic 3+ goals

14%

Arbroath 1+ goals

90%

Arbroath 2+ goals

66%

Arbroath 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Forfar Athletic (draw refunded)

26%

Arbroath (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forfar Athletic at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

Arbroath away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forfar Athletic attack 0.83 + Arbroath defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.31

Arbroath attack 2.40 + Forfar Athletic defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Forfar Athletic scores more

21%

level

20%

Arbroath scores more

59%

Arbroath at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Arbroath will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

37'

67'

67'

69'

70'

77'

C. Coupe← J. Bain

90+1'

E. Malone← J. Baird

Forfar

Arbroath

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: J. Weir

77'▲C. Coupe←▼J. Bain

90+1'▲E. Malone←▼J. Baird

Forfar Athletic substitutes

CoupeMaloneEastonHobanAitkenMacKintoshReilly

Manager: D. Campbell

67'▲D. Denholm←▼B. Linn

67'▲D. Gold←▼R. Wallace

70'▲G. Spence←▼S. Doris

Arbroath substitutes

DenholmGoldSpenceHillDonnellyKaderMcCord