Arbroath vs Forfar Athletic — FA Cup 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Arbroath49%
Forfar Athletic26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Arbroath creates 47% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Arbroath ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Arbroath at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches
Forfar Athletic away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Arbroath attack 1.38 + Forfar Athletic defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.56
Forfar Athletic attack 1.13 + Arbroath defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Arbroath at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Arbroath will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Arbroath host Forfar Athletic on Saturday, 27 November 2021 at 15:00. The match is part of the FA Cup 2019/2020 season.
FA Cup: Arbroath 3–0 Forfar Athletic
Arbroath beat Forfar Athletic 3-0 in FA Cup on November 27, 2021.
Goals: J. Thomson (12'), R. Little (20'), L. Donnelly (53').
The match was played at Gayfield Park in Arbroath.