Forest Green 2–2 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Forest Green

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Mansfield Town

J. Aitchison 61'

A. Collins 30'

A. Cook 74', 63'

10/19/2019

League Two · Round 14The New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Forest Green35%

×Draw28%

Mansfield Town37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forest GreenExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.23

Forest Green

1.18

Mansfield Town

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 90 home / 141 away

1.20

creates per match

1.25

1.22

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Forest Green

1.20

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Forest Green

1.22

Mansfield Town

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw

63%

Forest Green or Mansfield Town

72%

Draw or Mansfield Town

65%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+

15%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals

69%

Forest Green 2+ goals

33%

Forest Green 3+ goals

12%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

71%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

35%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)

48%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.20 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.18

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Forest Green scores more

35%

level

28%

Mansfield Town scores more

37%

Mansfield Town at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mansfield Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Cook

Mansfield Town · F

8.4

Match Events

1'

Dominic Bernard

19'

Conor Shaughnessy

28'

Kellan Gordon

30'

A. Collins↳ M. Stevens

34'

Ebou Adams

46'

A. Cook← W. Tomlinson

58'

O. Afolayan← C. Hamilton

61'

J. Aitchison↳ E. Adams

63'

A. Cook↳ O. Khan

70'

E. Frear← A. Collins

73'

Malvind Benning

74'

A. Cook↳ N. Bishop

82'

J. Mondal← D. Bernard

86'

Joseph Mills

90'

Neal Bishop

90+1'

J. Morton← E. Adams

90+3'

J. Knowles← N. Maynard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ForestMansfield

Overview

56%Possession44%

21Total Shots6

6Corners3

11Fouls16

Shots

21Total Shots6

6On Target3

8Off Target2

7Blocked1

10Inside Box3

11Outside Box3

Passing

56%Possession44%

429Total Passes326

308Accurate Passes209

72%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1