Forest Green 1–0 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Forest Green

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cheltenham

M. Peart-Harris 74'

12/10/2022

League One · Round 21The Bolt New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Forest Green31%

×Draw26%

Cheltenham43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forest GreenExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.42

Forest Green

1.16

Cheltenham

1.42

Cheltenham creates 22% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 69 away

0.65

creates per match

1.01

1.83

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Forest Green

0.65

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Forest Green

1.83

Cheltenham

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw

57%

Forest Green or Cheltenham

74%

Draw or Cheltenham

69%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+

12%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals

69%

Forest Green 2+ goals

32%

Forest Green 3+ goals

11%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

76%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

41%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)

42%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 0.65 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.16

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Forest Green defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Forest Green scores more

31%

level

26%

Cheltenham scores more

43%

Cheltenham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

M. Peart-Harris

Forest Green · F

7.9

Match Events

16'

Ben Williams

45+1'

Liam Sercombe

54'

Lewis Freestone

55'

A. Little← D. McGeouch

58'

D. Adshead← J. Olayinka

72'

J. Matt← C. Wickham

74'

M. Peart-Harris↳ H. Boyes

79'

C. Brown← B. Williams

79'

C. Norton← E. Bonds

80'

H. Bunker← K. McAllister

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ForestCheltenham

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots6

6Corners3

13Fouls16

Shots

14Total Shots6

5On Target1

5Off Target3

4Blocked2

7Inside Box3

7Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

277Total Passes346

165Accurate Passes228

60%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls16

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0