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Forest Green vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Forest Green
Forest Green
CANC
00:00
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
3/28/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 41The New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Forest Green40%
×Draw27%
Cheltenham33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forest Green
1.29
Cheltenham
1.14

Forest Green creates 13% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 95 away

creates per match

Forest Green
1.20
Cheltenham
1.06

allows per match

Forest Green
1.22
Cheltenham
1.38

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw
67%
Forest Green or Cheltenham
73%
Draw or Cheltenham
60%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+
18%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals
72%
Forest Green 2+ goals
37%
Forest Green 3+ goals
14%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
68%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
32%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)
55%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 90 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.38 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.20 + Cheltenham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Cheltenham attack 1.06 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Forest Green scores more
40%
level
27%
Cheltenham scores more
33%

Forest Green at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Forest Green face Cheltenham (League Two)

League Two returns with Forest Green hosting Cheltenham. Match starts March 28, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Forest Green host Cheltenham at The New Lawn.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.