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Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon — League Two 2018

Forest Green
Forest Green
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
1/1/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 26The Bolt New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Forest Green37%
×Draw29%
AFC Wimbledon34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forest Green
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 70 away

creates per match

Forest Green
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
0.96

allows per match

Forest Green
1.15
AFC Wimbledon
1.07

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw
66%
Forest Green or AFC Wimbledon
71%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
63%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+
15%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals
67%
Forest Green 2+ goals
31%
Forest Green 3+ goals
10%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
65%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
28%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)
53%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.15 · 110 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 1.17 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Forest Green defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Forest Green scores more
37%
level
29%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
34%

Forest Green at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Forest Green will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forest Green vs AFC Wimbledon

Forest Green and AFC Wimbledon drew 1-1 in League Two on January 1, 2024.

The match was played at The Bolt New Lawn in Nailsworth, Gloucestershire.