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AFC Wimbledon vs Forest Green — League Two 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Forest Green
Forest Green
8/26/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 5The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

AFC Wimbledon40%
×Draw27%
Forest Green34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.34
Forest Green
1.21

AFC Wimbledon creates 11% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 113 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.46
Forest Green
1.42

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.00
Forest Green
1.22

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
66%
AFC Wimbledon or Forest Green
73%
Draw or Forest Green
60%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
18%
Forest Green wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
74%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
39%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
15%
Forest Green 1+ goals
70%
Forest Green 2+ goals
34%
Forest Green 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
54%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.00 · 71 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.22 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.46 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.34

Forest Green attack 1.42 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
40%
level
27%
Forest Green scores more
34%

AFC Wimbledon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: AFC Wimbledon 1–1 Forest Green

AFC Wimbledon and Forest Green drew 1-1 in League Two on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in London.