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Forest Green vs Accrington ST — League One 2018

Forest Green
Forest Green
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
9/6/2022League OneLeague One · Round 4The Bolt New Lawn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Forest Green32%
×Draw26%
Accrington ST42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forest Green
1.18
Accrington ST
1.39

Accrington ST creates 18% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 110 away

creates per match

Forest Green
0.65
Accrington ST
0.95

allows per match

Forest Green
1.83
Accrington ST
1.70

finishing

Forest Green+0.00on par
Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forest Green ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Forest Green or draw
58%
Forest Green or Accrington ST
74%
Draw or Accrington ST
68%

Winning margin

Forest Green wins by 2+
13%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Forest Green 1+ goals
69%
Forest Green 2+ goals
33%
Forest Green 3+ goals
12%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
75%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
40%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Forest Green (draw refunded)
43%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forest Green at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.70 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forest Green attack 0.65 + Accrington ST defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.18

Accrington ST attack 0.95 + Forest Green defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Forest Green scores more
32%
level
26%
Accrington ST scores more
42%

Accrington ST at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Forest Green vs Accrington ST

Forest Green beat Accrington ST 2-1 in League One on September 6, 2022.

The match was played at The Bolt New Lawn in Nailsworth, Gloucestershire.