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Accrington ST vs Forest Green — League One 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Forest Green
Forest Green
3/4/2023League OneLeague One · Round 35Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Accrington ST53%
×Draw24%
Forest Green23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.75
Forest Green
1.06

Accrington ST creates 65% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 23 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
1.46
Forest Green
0.70

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.43
Forest Green
2.04

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
77%
Accrington ST or Forest Green
76%
Draw or Forest Green
47%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
30%
Forest Green wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
83%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
52%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
25%
Forest Green 1+ goals
65%
Forest Green 2+ goals
29%
Forest Green 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
70%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.43 · 109 matches

Forest Green away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.46 + Forest Green defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.75

Forest Green attack 0.70 + Accrington ST defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Accrington ST scores more
53%
level
24%
Forest Green scores more
23%

Accrington ST at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Accrington ST vs Forest Green

Accrington ST beat Forest Green 2-1 in League One on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Wham Stadium in Accrington, Lancashire.