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Foolad FC vs Aluminium Arak — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Foolad FC
Foolad FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
11/10/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 10Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Foolad FC42%
×Draw33%
Aluminium Arak26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foolad FC
1.02
Aluminium Arak
0.73

Foolad FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 86 away

creates per match

Foolad FC
1.03
Aluminium Arak
0.71

allows per match

Foolad FC
0.75
Aluminium Arak
1.02

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw
74%
Foolad FC or Aluminium Arak
67%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
58%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+
16%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals
64%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
27%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
8%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
52%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
17%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)
62%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.75 · 115 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.02 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.03 + Aluminium Arak defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Aluminium Arak attack 0.71 + Foolad FC defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Foolad FC scores more
42%
level
33%
Aluminium Arak scores more
26%

Foolad FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Foolad FC vs Aluminium Arak

Foolad FC beat Aluminium Arak 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Shohadaye Foolad Khoozestan in Ahvaz.