Aluminium Arak 4–2 Foolad FC: Result & Stats

Aluminium Arak

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Foolad FC

10/20/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 8Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Aluminium Arak38%

×Draw33%

Foolad FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aluminium ArakExpected goals in this matchFoolad FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.81

Aluminium Arak

0.97

Foolad FC

0.81

Aluminium Arak creates 20% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 116 away

0.87

creates per match

0.84

0.79

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Aluminium Arak

0.87

Foolad FC

0.84

allows per match

Aluminium Arak

0.79

Foolad FC

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Foolad FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

11%89%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw

71%

Aluminium Arak or Foolad FC

67%

Draw or Foolad FC

62%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

14%

Foolad FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

62%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

25%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

7%

Foolad FC 1+ goals

56%

Foolad FC 2+ goals

19%

Foolad FC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

57%

Foolad FC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.79 · 85 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.07 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 0.87 + Foolad FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.97

Foolad FC attack 0.84 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more

38%

level

33%

Foolad FC scores more

29%

Aluminium Arak at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff