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Foolad FC vs Al Wihdat — AFC Champions League 2018

Foolad FC
Foolad FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Wihdat
Al Wihdat
4/17/2021AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group D - 2King Fahd International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Foolad FC61%
×Draw24%
Al Wihdat15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foolad FC
1.65
Al Wihdat
0.68

Foolad FC creates 143% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

creates per match

Foolad FC
1.00
Al Wihdat
0.86

allows per match

Foolad FC
0.50
Al Wihdat
2.29

finishing

Foolad FC+0.00on par
Al Wihdat+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foolad FC ↓

Al Wihdat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Foolad FC or draw
85%
Foolad FC or Al Wihdat
76%
Draw or Al Wihdat
39%

Winning margin

Foolad FC wins by 2+
34%
Al Wihdat wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Foolad FC 1+ goals
81%
Foolad FC 2+ goals
49%
Foolad FC 3+ goals
23%
Al Wihdat 1+ goals
49%
Al Wihdat 2+ goals
15%
Al Wihdat 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Foolad FC (draw refunded)
80%
Al Wihdat (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foolad FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Al Wihdat away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foolad FC attack 1.00 + Al Wihdat defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.65

Al Wihdat attack 0.86 + Foolad FC defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Foolad FC scores more
61%
level
24%
Al Wihdat scores more
15%

Foolad FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Foolad FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Foolad FC 1–0 Al Wihdat

Foolad FC beat Al Wihdat 1-0 in AFC Champions League on April 17, 2021.

The match was played at King Fahd International Stadium in Riyadh.