Al Wihdat 1–0 Foolad FC: Result & Stats

Al Wihdat

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Foolad FC

4/29/2021

AFC Champions League · Group D - 6Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Al Wihdat35%

×Draw31%

Foolad FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al WihdatExpected goals in this matchFoolad FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

Al Wihdat

1.00

Foolad FC

1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.29

creates per match

0.71

1.29

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Al Wihdat

1.29

Foolad FC

0.71

allows per match

Al Wihdat

1.29

Foolad FC

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Wihdat+0.00on par

Foolad FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Wihdat ↓

Foolad FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Al Wihdat or draw

65%

Al Wihdat or Foolad FC

69%

Draw or Foolad FC

65%

Winning margin

Al Wihdat wins by 2+

13%

Foolad FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Al Wihdat 1+ goals

63%

Al Wihdat 2+ goals

26%

Al Wihdat 3+ goals

8%

Foolad FC 1+ goals

63%

Foolad FC 2+ goals

26%

Foolad FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Al Wihdat (draw refunded)

50%

Foolad FC (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Wihdat at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Foolad FC away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Wihdat attack 1.29 + Foolad FC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.00

Foolad FC attack 0.71 + Al Wihdat defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Al Wihdat scores more

35%

level

31%

Foolad FC scores more

35%

Al Wihdat at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Al Wihdat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff