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Fontinhas vs Belenenses II — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Fontinhas
Fontinhas
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Belenenses II
Belenenses II
1/24/2021Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 13Campo Municipal Dr. Durval Monteiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Fontinhas50%
×Draw25%
Belenenses II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fontinhas
1.59
Belenenses II
1.04

Fontinhas creates 53% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Fontinhas
1.82
Belenenses II
0.73

allows per match

Fontinhas
1.36
Belenenses II
1.36

finishing

Fontinhas+0.00on par
Belenenses II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontinhas ↓

Belenenses II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fontinhas or draw
75%
Fontinhas or Belenenses II
75%
Draw or Belenenses II
50%

Winning margin

Fontinhas wins by 2+
26%
Belenenses II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fontinhas 1+ goals
80%
Fontinhas 2+ goals
47%
Fontinhas 3+ goals
21%
Belenenses II 1+ goals
65%
Belenenses II 2+ goals
28%
Belenenses II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fontinhas (draw refunded)
67%
Belenenses II (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontinhas at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Belenenses II away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontinhas attack 1.82 + Belenenses II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.59

Belenenses II attack 0.73 + Fontinhas defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fontinhas scores more
50%
level
25%
Belenenses II scores more
25%

Fontinhas at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fontinhas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fontinhas vs Belenenses II

Belenenses II beat Fontinhas 3-1 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on January 24, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Dr. Durval Monteiro in Fontinhas.