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Belenenses II vs Fontinhas — Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G 2020

Belenenses II
Belenenses II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fontinhas
Fontinhas
10/4/2020Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group GCampeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G · Group G - 2Campo N 2 - Complexo Desportivo Odivelas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Belenenses II31%
×Draw33%
Fontinhas36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Belenenses II
0.86
Fontinhas
0.96

Fontinhas creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Belenenses II
0.73
Fontinhas
0.91

allows per match

Belenenses II
1.00
Fontinhas
1.00

finishing

Belenenses II+0.00on par
Fontinhas+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Belenenses II ↓

Fontinhas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Belenenses II or draw
64%
Belenenses II or Fontinhas
67%
Draw or Fontinhas
69%

Winning margin

Belenenses II wins by 2+
10%
Fontinhas wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Belenenses II 1+ goals
58%
Belenenses II 2+ goals
21%
Belenenses II 3+ goals
6%
Fontinhas 1+ goals
62%
Fontinhas 2+ goals
25%
Fontinhas 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Belenenses II (draw refunded)
46%
Fontinhas (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Belenenses II at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Fontinhas away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Belenenses II attack 0.73 + Fontinhas defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Fontinhas attack 0.91 + Belenenses II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Belenenses II scores more
31%
level
33%
Fontinhas scores more
36%

Fontinhas at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Fontinhas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Belenenses II 0 – 2 Fontinhas

Fontinhas beat Belenenses II 2-0 in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group G on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Campo N 2 - Complexo Desportivo Odivelas in Odivelas.