Fontinhas 2–1 Academica: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Fontinhas

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Academica

10/8/2022

Liga 3 · Round 5Estádio João Paulo II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Fontinhas32%

×Draw27%

Academica41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FontinhasExpected goals in this matchAcademica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.36

Fontinhas

1.18

Academica

1.36

Academica creates 15% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 60 away

1.14

creates per match

1.52

1.21

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Fontinhas

1.14

Academica

1.52

allows per match

Fontinhas

1.21

Academica

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fontinhas+0.00on par

Academica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fontinhas ↓

Academica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fontinhas or draw

59%

Fontinhas or Academica

73%

Draw or Academica

68%

Winning margin

Fontinhas wins by 2+

13%

Academica wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Fontinhas 1+ goals

69%

Fontinhas 2+ goals

33%

Fontinhas 3+ goals

12%

Academica 1+ goals

74%

Academica 2+ goals

39%

Academica 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fontinhas (draw refunded)

44%

Academica (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fontinhas at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Academica away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fontinhas attack 1.14 + Academica defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

Academica attack 1.52 + Fontinhas defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fontinhas scores more

32%

level

27%

Academica scores more

41%

Academica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff