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Academica vs Fontinhas — Liga 3 2021

Academica
Academica
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fontinhas
Fontinhas
4/2/2023Liga 3Liga 3 · Relegation Round - 1Estádio EFAPEL

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Academica52%
×Draw25%
Fontinhas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Academica
1.63
Fontinhas
1.02

Academica creates 60% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 14 away

creates per match

Academica
1.33
Fontinhas
1.00

allows per match

Academica
1.05
Fontinhas
1.93

finishing

Academica+0.00on par
Fontinhas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Academica ↓

Fontinhas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Academica or draw
76%
Academica or Fontinhas
75%
Draw or Fontinhas
48%

Winning margin

Academica wins by 2+
27%
Fontinhas wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Academica 1+ goals
80%
Academica 2+ goals
48%
Academica 3+ goals
22%
Fontinhas 1+ goals
64%
Fontinhas 2+ goals
27%
Fontinhas 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Academica (draw refunded)
68%
Fontinhas (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Academica at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Fontinhas away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Academica attack 1.33 + Fontinhas defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.63

Fontinhas attack 1.00 + Academica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Academica scores more
52%
level
25%
Fontinhas scores more
24%

Academica at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Academica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Academica vs Fontinhas

Academica beat Fontinhas 1-0 in Liga 3 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio EFAPEL in Coimbra.