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Főnix vs Ferencváros II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Főnix
Főnix
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Ferencváros II
Ferencváros II
3/16/2025NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 20Főnix Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Főnix22%
×Draw21%
Ferencváros II57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Főnix
1.23
Ferencváros II
2.08

Ferencváros II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Főnix
1.00
Ferencváros II
1.76

allows per match

Főnix
2.40
Ferencváros II
1.47

finishing

Főnix+0.00on par
Ferencváros II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Főnix ↓

Ferencváros II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Főnix or draw
43%
Főnix or Ferencváros II
79%
Draw or Ferencváros II
78%

Winning margin

Főnix wins by 2+
9%
Ferencváros II wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Főnix 1+ goals
71%
Főnix 2+ goals
35%
Főnix 3+ goals
13%
Ferencváros II 1+ goals
87%
Ferencváros II 2+ goals
61%
Ferencváros II 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Főnix (draw refunded)
28%
Ferencváros II (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Főnix at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Ferencváros II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Főnix attack 1.00 + Ferencváros II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Ferencváros II attack 1.76 + Főnix defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Főnix scores more
22%
level
21%
Ferencváros II scores more
57%

Ferencváros II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ferencváros II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Főnix vs Ferencváros II

Ferencváros II beat Főnix 4-2 in NB III - Southwest on March 16, 2025.

The match was played at Főnix Park in Székesfehérvár.