Ferencváros II 2–0 Főnix: Result & Stats

Ferencváros II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Főnix

8/28/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 5FTC Utánpótlás Centrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ferencváros II73%

×Draw15%

Főnix12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferencváros IIExpected goals in this matchFőnix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.94

1.15

Ferencváros II

2.94

Főnix

1.15

Ferencváros II creates 156% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

2.27

creates per match

1.40

0.89

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Ferencváros II

2.27

Főnix

1.40

allows per match

Ferencváros II

0.89

Főnix

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferencváros II+0.00on par

Főnix+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencváros II ↓

Főnix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Ferencváros II or draw

88%

Ferencváros II or Főnix

85%

Draw or Főnix

27%

Winning margin

Ferencváros II wins by 2+

53%

Főnix wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Ferencváros II 1+ goals

95%

Ferencváros II 2+ goals

79%

Ferencváros II 3+ goals

55%

Főnix 1+ goals

68%

Főnix 2+ goals

32%

Főnix 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ferencváros II (draw refunded)

86%

Főnix (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencváros II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Főnix away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencváros II attack 2.27 + Főnix defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.94

Főnix attack 1.40 + Ferencváros II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Ferencváros II scores more

73%

level

15%

Főnix scores more

12%

Ferencváros II at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Ferencváros II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff