Főnix 0–3 Dunaharaszti MTK: Result & Stats

Főnix

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Dunaharaszti MTK

3/30/2025

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 22Főnix Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Főnix21%

×Draw20%

Dunaharaszti MTK59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FőnixExpected goals in this matchDunaharaszti MTK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

2.26

Főnix

1.30

Dunaharaszti MTK

2.26

Dunaharaszti MTK creates 74% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

2.13

2.40

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Főnix

1.00

Dunaharaszti MTK

2.13

allows per match

Főnix

2.40

Dunaharaszti MTK

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Főnix+0.00on par

Dunaharaszti MTK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Főnix ↓

Dunaharaszti MTK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Főnix or draw

41%

Főnix or Dunaharaszti MTK

80%

Draw or Dunaharaszti MTK

79%

Winning margin

Főnix wins by 2+

9%

Dunaharaszti MTK wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Főnix 1+ goals

73%

Főnix 2+ goals

37%

Főnix 3+ goals

14%

Dunaharaszti MTK 1+ goals

89%

Dunaharaszti MTK 2+ goals

66%

Dunaharaszti MTK 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Főnix (draw refunded)

27%

Dunaharaszti MTK (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Főnix at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.40 · 15 matches

Dunaharaszti MTK away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Főnix attack 1.00 + Dunaharaszti MTK defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Dunaharaszti MTK attack 2.13 + Főnix defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Főnix scores more

21%

level

20%

Dunaharaszti MTK scores more

59%

Dunaharaszti MTK at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Dunaharaszti MTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff