Dunaharaszti MTK 4–1 Főnix: Result & Stats

Dunaharaszti MTK

FT

4 – 1

Főnix

9/8/2024

NB III - Southwest · Southwest - 7Dunaharaszti Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dunaharaszti MTK57%

×Draw20%

Főnix23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunaharaszti MTKExpected goals in this matchFőnix

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.40

Dunaharaszti MTK

2.30

Főnix

1.40

Dunaharaszti MTK creates 64% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.00

creates per match

1.40

allows per match

3.60

creates per match

Dunaharaszti MTK

1.00

Főnix

1.40

allows per match

Dunaharaszti MTK

1.40

Főnix

3.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunaharaszti MTK+0.00on par

Főnix+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunaharaszti MTK ↓

Főnix →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Dunaharaszti MTK or draw

77%

Dunaharaszti MTK or Főnix

80%

Draw or Főnix

43%

Winning margin

Dunaharaszti MTK wins by 2+

36%

Főnix wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dunaharaszti MTK 1+ goals

90%

Dunaharaszti MTK 2+ goals

67%

Dunaharaszti MTK 3+ goals

40%

Főnix 1+ goals

75%

Főnix 2+ goals

41%

Főnix 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Dunaharaszti MTK (draw refunded)

72%

Főnix (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunaharaszti MTK at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Főnix away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunaharaszti MTK attack 1.00 + Főnix defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.30

Főnix attack 1.40 + Dunaharaszti MTK defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Dunaharaszti MTK scores more

57%

level

20%

Főnix scores more

23%

Dunaharaszti MTK at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Dunaharaszti MTK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff