Foncha ST 0–1 Avion Academy: Result & Stats

Foncha ST

FT

0 – 1

Avion Academy

4/30/2025

Elite Two · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Foncha ST42%

×Draw28%

Avion Academy31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Foncha STExpected goals in this matchAvion Academy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.08

Foncha ST

1.31

Avion Academy

1.08

Foncha ST creates 21% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 19 away

1.35

creates per match

1.11

1.06

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Foncha ST

1.35

Avion Academy

1.11

allows per match

Foncha ST

1.06

Avion Academy

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foncha ST+0.00on par

Avion Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foncha ST ↓

Avion Academy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Foncha ST or draw

69%

Foncha ST or Avion Academy

72%

Draw or Avion Academy

58%

Winning margin

Foncha ST wins by 2+

19%

Avion Academy wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Foncha ST 1+ goals

73%

Foncha ST 2+ goals

38%

Foncha ST 3+ goals

14%

Avion Academy 1+ goals

66%

Avion Academy 2+ goals

29%

Avion Academy 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Foncha ST (draw refunded)

58%

Avion Academy (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foncha ST at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 49 matches

Avion Academy away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foncha ST attack 1.35 + Avion Academy defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Avion Academy attack 1.11 + Foncha ST defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Foncha ST scores more

42%

level

28%

Avion Academy scores more

31%

Foncha ST at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Foncha ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff