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Avion Academy vs Foncha ST — Elite Two 2020

Avion Academy
Avion Academy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Foncha ST
Foncha ST
1/26/2025Elite TwoElite Two · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Avion Academy54%
×Draw23%
Foncha ST22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avion Academy
1.80
Foncha ST
1.07

Avion Academy creates 68% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 50 away

creates per match

Avion Academy
1.48
Foncha ST
1.04

allows per match

Avion Academy
1.10
Foncha ST
2.12

finishing

Avion Academy+0.00on par
Foncha ST+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avion Academy ↓

Foncha ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Avion Academy or draw
78%
Avion Academy or Foncha ST
77%
Draw or Foncha ST
46%

Winning margin

Avion Academy wins by 2+
31%
Foncha ST wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Avion Academy 1+ goals
83%
Avion Academy 2+ goals
54%
Avion Academy 3+ goals
27%
Foncha ST 1+ goals
66%
Foncha ST 2+ goals
29%
Foncha ST 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Avion Academy (draw refunded)
71%
Foncha ST (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avion Academy at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 21 matches

Foncha ST away — creates 1.04, concedes 2.12 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avion Academy attack 1.48 + Foncha ST defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.80

Foncha ST attack 1.04 + Avion Academy defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Avion Academy scores more
54%
level
23%
Foncha ST scores more
22%

Avion Academy at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Avion Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avion Academy vs Foncha ST

Avion Academy beat Foncha ST 2-1 in Elite Two on January 26, 2025.