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FOMO vs Baka City — Super League 2026

FOMO
FOMO
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Baka City
Baka City
5/11/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Mulanje Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

FOMO72%
×Draw18%
Baka City10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FOMO
2.14
Baka City
0.64

FOMO creates 234% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

FOMO
0.80
Baka City
0.47

allows per match

FOMO
0.80
Baka City
3.47

finishing

FOMO+0.00on par
Baka City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FOMO ↓

Baka City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FOMO or draw
90%
FOMO or Baka City
82%
Draw or Baka City
28%

Winning margin

FOMO wins by 2+
47%
Baka City wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

FOMO 1+ goals
88%
FOMO 2+ goals
63%
FOMO 3+ goals
36%
Baka City 1+ goals
47%
Baka City 2+ goals
14%
Baka City 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

FOMO (draw refunded)
88%
Baka City (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FOMO at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Baka City away — creates 0.47, concedes 3.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FOMO attack 0.80 + Baka City defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.14

Baka City attack 0.47 + FOMO defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

FOMO scores more
72%
level
18%
Baka City scores more
10%

FOMO at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "FOMO will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FOMO 1 – 1 Baka City

FOMO and Baka City drew 1-1 in Super League on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Mulanje Park Stadium in Mulanje.