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Baka City vs FOMO — Super League 2026

Baka City
Baka City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FOMO
FOMO
11/6/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Karonga Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Baka City42%
×Draw29%
FOMO28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baka City
1.20
FOMO
0.93

Baka City creates 29% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Baka City
0.67
FOMO
0.53

allows per match

Baka City
1.33
FOMO
1.73

finishing

Baka City+0.00on par
FOMO+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baka City ↓

FOMO →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Baka City or draw
72%
Baka City or FOMO
71%
Draw or FOMO
58%

Winning margin

Baka City wins by 2+
18%
FOMO wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Baka City 1+ goals
70%
Baka City 2+ goals
34%
Baka City 3+ goals
12%
FOMO 1+ goals
61%
FOMO 2+ goals
24%
FOMO 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Baka City (draw refunded)
60%
FOMO (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baka City at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

FOMO away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baka City attack 0.67 + FOMO defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.20

FOMO attack 0.53 + Baka City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Baka City scores more
42%
level
29%
FOMO scores more
28%

Baka City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Baka City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baka City 2 – 1 FOMO

Baka City beat FOMO 2-1 in Super League on November 6, 2024.

The match was played at Karonga Stadium in Karonga.