Fola Esch 0–2 Bettembourg: Result & Stats

Fola Esch

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Bettembourg

12/8/2024

National Division · Round 15Stade Émile Mayrisch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fola Esch56%

×Draw22%

Bettembourg22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fola EschExpected goals in this matchBettembourg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.16

Fola Esch

1.97

Bettembourg

1.16

Fola Esch creates 70% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 16 away

1.94

creates per match

1.00

1.32

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Fola Esch

1.94

Bettembourg

1.00

allows per match

Fola Esch

1.32

Bettembourg

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fola Esch+0.00on par

Bettembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fola Esch ↓

Bettembourg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Fola Esch or draw

78%

Fola Esch or Bettembourg

78%

Draw or Bettembourg

44%

Winning margin

Fola Esch wins by 2+

33%

Bettembourg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fola Esch 1+ goals

86%

Fola Esch 2+ goals

58%

Fola Esch 3+ goals

31%

Bettembourg 1+ goals

69%

Bettembourg 2+ goals

32%

Bettembourg 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Fola Esch (draw refunded)

72%

Bettembourg (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fola Esch at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.32 · 96 matches

Bettembourg away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fola Esch attack 1.94 + Bettembourg defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.97

Bettembourg attack 1.00 + Fola Esch defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fola Esch scores more

56%

level

22%

Bettembourg scores more

22%

Fola Esch at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fola Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff