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Bettembourg vs Fola Esch — National Division 2018

Bettembourg
Bettembourg
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fola Esch
Fola Esch
5/18/2025National DivisionNational Division · Round 29Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Bettembourg33%
×Draw23%
Fola Esch45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bettembourg
1.50
Fola Esch
1.79

Fola Esch creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 97 away

creates per match

Bettembourg
0.94
Fola Esch
1.65

allows per match

Bettembourg
1.94
Fola Esch
2.06

finishing

Bettembourg+0.00on par
Fola Esch+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bettembourg ↓

Fola Esch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bettembourg or draw
55%
Bettembourg or Fola Esch
77%
Draw or Fola Esch
67%

Winning margin

Bettembourg wins by 2+
15%
Fola Esch wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Bettembourg 1+ goals
78%
Bettembourg 2+ goals
44%
Bettembourg 3+ goals
19%
Fola Esch 1+ goals
83%
Fola Esch 2+ goals
53%
Fola Esch 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bettembourg (draw refunded)
42%
Fola Esch (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bettembourg at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 16 matches

Fola Esch away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.06 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bettembourg attack 0.94 + Fola Esch defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fola Esch attack 1.65 + Bettembourg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bettembourg scores more
33%
level
23%
Fola Esch scores more
45%

Fola Esch at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fola Esch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bettembourg vs Fola Esch

Bettembourg beat Fola Esch 2-0 in National Division on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Bettembourg.