Foggia 0–2 Crotone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Foggia

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Crotone

N. Zanellato 14'

M. Rohdén 6'

1/25/2019

Serie B · Round 21Stadio Pino Zaccheria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Foggia48%

×Draw25%

Crotone27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FoggiaExpected goals in this matchCrotone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.16

Foggia

1.63

Crotone

1.16

Foggia creates 41% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 51 away

1.73

creates per match

1.12

1.19

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Foggia

1.73

Crotone

1.12

allows per match

Foggia

1.19

Crotone

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Foggia+0.00on par

Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foggia ↓

Crotone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Foggia or draw

73%

Foggia or Crotone

75%

Draw or Crotone

52%

Winning margin

Foggia wins by 2+

25%

Crotone wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Foggia 1+ goals

80%

Foggia 2+ goals

48%

Foggia 3+ goals

22%

Crotone 1+ goals

69%

Crotone 2+ goals

32%

Crotone 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Foggia (draw refunded)

64%

Crotone (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foggia at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.19 · 26 matches

Crotone away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.53 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foggia attack 1.73 + Crotone defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Crotone attack 1.12 + Foggia defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Foggia scores more

48%

level

25%

Crotone scores more

27%

Foggia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Foggia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. Rohdén

14'

N. Zanellato↳ S. Nwankwo

21'

L. Greco← M. Zambelli

36'

Marcus Rohdén

43'

Oliver Kragl

45'

G. Loiacono← D. Tonucci

56'

M. Curado← N. Spolli

65'

Lucas Chiaretti← F. Deli

69'

A. Kargbo← Z. Machach

71'

S. Molina← M. Rohdén

81'

Niccolò Zanellato

87'

Mario Sampirisi

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FoggiaCrotone

Overview

65%Possession35%

17Total Shots10

2Corners4

10Fouls20

Shots

17Total Shots10

1On Target5

16Off Target5

Passing

65%Possession35%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0