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Crotone vs Foggia — Serie B 2018

Crotone
Crotone
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Foggia
Foggia
M. Rohdén 65'
A. Nalini 54'
M. Firenze 49'
D. Faraoni 31'
F. Mazzeo 90+3' (pen)
9/2/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 2Stadio Ezio Scida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Crotone49%
×Draw26%
Foggia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crotone
1.53
Foggia
1.03

Crotone creates 49% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 25 away

creates per match

Crotone
1.46
Foggia
1.04

allows per match

Crotone
1.02
Foggia
1.60

finishing

Crotone+0.00on par
Foggia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone ↓

Foggia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Crotone or draw
74%
Crotone or Foggia
74%
Draw or Foggia
51%

Winning margin

Crotone wins by 2+
25%
Foggia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Crotone 1+ goals
78%
Crotone 2+ goals
45%
Crotone 3+ goals
20%
Foggia 1+ goals
64%
Foggia 2+ goals
28%
Foggia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Crotone (draw refunded)
66%
Foggia (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.02 · 50 matches

Foggia away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone attack 1.46 + Foggia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.53

Foggia attack 1.04 + Crotone defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Crotone scores more
49%
level
26%
Foggia scores more
26%

Crotone at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Crotone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
Denis Tonucci
31'
D. Faraoni↳ B. Martella
34'
Ahmed Benali
49'
M. Firenze↳ A. Budimir
52'
G. Gori← G. Loiacono
54'
A. Nalini
65'
M. Rohdén↳ A. Nalini
70'
S. Nwankwo← A. Budimir
76'
L. Ranieri← D. Tonucci
78'
S. Molina← B. Martella
82'
A. Stoian← A. Nalini
87'
A. Gerbo← E. Cicerelli
90+3'
F. MazzeoPenalty

Possession

53%Crotone

Shots

4Crotone

Statistics

CrotoneFoggia
Overview
53%Possession47%
4Total Shots4
10Corners4
11Fouls13
Shots
4Total Shots4
3On Target3
1Off Target1
Passing
53%Possession47%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls13
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
2Offsides5

Serie B: Crotone 4–1 Foggia

Crotone beat Foggia 4-1 in Serie B on September 2, 2018.

Goals: D. Faraoni (31'), M. Firenze (49'), A. Nalini (54'), M. Rohdén (65'), F. Mazzeo (90+3' pen).

Crotone controlled possession (53%) and registered 4 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadio Ezio Scida in Crotone.