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Foggia vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Foggia
Foggia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Brescia
Brescia
A. Gerbo 52'
F. Mazzeo 6'
L. Tremolada 83'
E. Torregrossa 14'
11/3/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 11Stadio Pino Zaccheria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Foggia46%
×Draw25%
Brescia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foggia
1.54
Brescia
1.18

Foggia creates 31% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 117 away

creates per match

Foggia
1.79
Brescia
1.15

allows per match

Foggia
1.21
Brescia
1.28

finishing

Foggia+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foggia ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Foggia or draw
71%
Foggia or Brescia
75%
Draw or Brescia
54%

Winning margin

Foggia wins by 2+
23%
Brescia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Foggia 1+ goals
79%
Foggia 2+ goals
45%
Foggia 3+ goals
20%
Brescia 1+ goals
69%
Brescia 2+ goals
33%
Brescia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Foggia (draw refunded)
61%
Brescia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foggia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.28 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foggia attack 1.79 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.54

Brescia attack 1.15 + Foggia defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Foggia scores more
46%
level
25%
Brescia scores more
29%

Foggia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Foggia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
F. Mazzeo↳ M. Zambelli
14'
E. Torregrossa↳ E. Ndoj
35'
A. Matějů← Felipe Curcio
45'
Michele Camporese
52'
A. Gerbo↳ F. Mazzeo
61'
Michele Camporese
61'
Michele Camporese
63'
D. Tonucci← F. Deli
63'
A. Donnarumma← L. Morosini
65'
Stefano Sabelli
68'
P. Iemmello← F. Mazzeo
72'
C. Agnelli← C. Galano
72'
L. Tremolada← N. Špalek
75'
Ernesto Torregrossa
81'
Marco Carraro
83'
L. Tremolada
90'
Simone Romagnoli

Possession

51%Foggia

Shots

12Foggia

Statistics

FoggiaBrescia
Overview
51%Possession49%
12Total Shots11
4Corners12
13Fouls14
Shots
12Total Shots11
4On Target7
8Off Target4
Passing
51%Possession49%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls14
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
1Offsides7

Match Recap: Foggia vs Brescia

Foggia and Brescia drew 2-2 in Serie B on November 3, 2018.

Goals: F. Mazzeo (6'), E. Torregrossa (14'), A. Gerbo (52'), L. Tremolada (83').

Foggia controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Pino Zaccheria in Foggia.