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Foggia vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Foggia
Foggia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Brescia
Brescia
2/24/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 27Stadio Pino Zaccheria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Foggia44%
×Draw25%
Brescia31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Foggia
1.53
Brescia
1.23

Foggia creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 119 away

creates per match

Foggia
1.79
Brescia
1.21

allows per match

Foggia
1.26
Brescia
1.27

finishing

Foggia+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Foggia ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Foggia or draw
69%
Foggia or Brescia
75%
Draw or Brescia
56%

Winning margin

Foggia wins by 2+
22%
Brescia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Foggia 1+ goals
78%
Foggia 2+ goals
45%
Foggia 3+ goals
20%
Brescia 1+ goals
71%
Brescia 2+ goals
35%
Brescia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Foggia (draw refunded)
59%
Brescia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Foggia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Foggia attack 1.79 + Brescia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.53

Brescia attack 1.21 + Foggia defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Foggia scores more
44%
level
25%
Brescia scores more
31%

Foggia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Foggia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Foggia 1–2 Brescia

Brescia beat Foggia 2-1 in Serie B on February 24, 2018.

The match was played at Stadio Pino Zaccheria in Foggia.