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Focşani vs Metalul Buzău — Liga II 2018

Focşani
Focşani
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Metalul Buzău
Metalul Buzău
8/18/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 3Stadionul Milcovul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Focşani33%
×Draw28%
Metalul Buzău39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Focşani
1.09
Metalul Buzău
1.22

Metalul Buzău creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 27 away

creates per match

Focşani
0.86
Metalul Buzău
1.44

allows per match

Focşani
1.00
Metalul Buzău
1.33

finishing

Focşani+0.00on par
Metalul Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Focşani ↓

Metalul Buzău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Focşani or draw
61%
Focşani or Metalul Buzău
72%
Draw or Metalul Buzău
67%

Winning margin

Focşani wins by 2+
13%
Metalul Buzău wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Focşani 1+ goals
66%
Focşani 2+ goals
30%
Focşani 3+ goals
10%
Metalul Buzău 1+ goals
70%
Metalul Buzău 2+ goals
34%
Metalul Buzău 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Focşani (draw refunded)
46%
Metalul Buzău (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Focşani at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Metalul Buzău away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Focşani attack 0.86 + Metalul Buzău defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Metalul Buzău attack 1.44 + Focşani defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Focşani scores more
33%
level
28%
Metalul Buzău scores more
39%

Metalul Buzău at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Metalul Buzău will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Focşani vs Metalul Buzău

Metalul Buzău beat Focşani 3-0 in Liga II on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Milcovul in Focşani.