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Focşani vs Metalul Buzău — Liga III - Play-offs 2022

Focşani
Focşani
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Metalul Buzău
Metalul Buzău
6/1/2024Liga III - Play-offsLiga III - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsStadionul Milcovul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Focşani66%
×Draw23%
Metalul Buzău11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Focşani
1.67
Metalul Buzău
0.50

Focşani creates 234% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Focşani
2.00
Metalul Buzău
0.67

allows per match

Focşani
0.33
Metalul Buzău
1.33

finishing

Focşani+0.00on par
Metalul Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Focşani ↓

Metalul Buzău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Focşani or draw
89%
Focşani or Metalul Buzău
77%
Draw or Metalul Buzău
34%

Winning margin

Focşani wins by 2+
38%
Metalul Buzău wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Focşani 1+ goals
81%
Focşani 2+ goals
50%
Focşani 3+ goals
23%
Metalul Buzău 1+ goals
39%
Metalul Buzău 2+ goals
9%
Metalul Buzău 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Focşani (draw refunded)
86%
Metalul Buzău (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Focşani at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Metalul Buzău away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Focşani attack 2.00 + Metalul Buzău defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Metalul Buzău attack 0.67 + Focşani defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Focşani scores more
66%
level
23%
Metalul Buzău scores more
11%

Focşani at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Focşani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga III - Play-offs: Focşani 2–1 Metalul Buzău

Focşani beat Metalul Buzău 2-1 in Liga III - Play-offs on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Milcovul in Focşani.