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Focşani vs Dumbrăviţa — Liga II 2018

Focşani
Focşani
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dumbrăviţa
Dumbrăviţa
8/31/2024Liga IILiga II · Round 5Stadionul Milcovul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Focşani43%
×Draw29%
Dumbrăviţa29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Focşani
1.25
Dumbrăviţa
0.97

Focşani creates 29% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 54 away

creates per match

Focşani
0.86
Dumbrăviţa
0.94

allows per match

Focşani
1.00
Dumbrăviţa
1.65

finishing

Focşani+0.00on par
Dumbrăviţa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Focşani ↓

Dumbrăviţa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Focşani or draw
71%
Focşani or Dumbrăviţa
71%
Draw or Dumbrăviţa
57%

Winning margin

Focşani wins by 2+
19%
Dumbrăviţa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Focşani 1+ goals
71%
Focşani 2+ goals
36%
Focşani 3+ goals
13%
Dumbrăviţa 1+ goals
62%
Dumbrăviţa 2+ goals
25%
Dumbrăviţa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Focşani (draw refunded)
60%
Dumbrăviţa (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Focşani at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

Dumbrăviţa away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Focşani attack 0.86 + Dumbrăviţa defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dumbrăviţa attack 0.94 + Focşani defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Focşani scores more
43%
level
29%
Dumbrăviţa scores more
29%

Focşani at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Focşani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Focşani vs Dumbrăviţa

Dumbrăviţa beat Focşani 1-0 in Liga II on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Milcovul in Focşani.