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Dumbrăviţa vs Focşani — Liga II 2018

Dumbrăviţa
Dumbrăviţa
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Focşani
Focşani
4/26/2025Liga IILiga II · Relegation Round - 5Stadionul Ştefan Dobay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Dumbrăviţa48%
×Draw29%
Focşani23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dumbrăviţa
1.26
Focşani
0.77

Dumbrăviţa creates 64% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 12 away

creates per match

Dumbrăviţa
1.19
Focşani
0.42

allows per match

Dumbrăviţa
1.13
Focşani
1.33

finishing

Dumbrăviţa+0.00on par
Focşani+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbrăviţa ↓

Focşani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Dumbrăviţa or draw
77%
Dumbrăviţa or Focşani
71%
Draw or Focşani
52%

Winning margin

Dumbrăviţa wins by 2+
22%
Focşani wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Dumbrăviţa 1+ goals
72%
Dumbrăviţa 2+ goals
36%
Dumbrăviţa 3+ goals
13%
Focşani 1+ goals
54%
Focşani 2+ goals
18%
Focşani 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Dumbrăviţa (draw refunded)
68%
Focşani (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbrăviţa at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.13 · 52 matches

Focşani away — creates 0.42, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbrăviţa attack 1.19 + Focşani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Focşani attack 0.42 + Dumbrăviţa defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dumbrăviţa scores more
48%
level
29%
Focşani scores more
23%

Dumbrăviţa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dumbrăviţa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Dumbrăviţa 0–0 Focşani

Dumbrăviţa and Focşani drew 0-0 in Liga II on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Ştefan Dobay in Dumbrăvița.