Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fluminense W vs Atlético Mineiro W — Brasileiro Women 2018

Fluminense W
Fluminense W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Mineiro W
Atlético Mineiro W
3/16/2024Brasileiro WomenBrasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Luso-Brasileiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fluminense W50%
×Draw26%
Atlético Mineiro W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fluminense W
1.51
Atlético Mineiro W
0.94

Fluminense W creates 61% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 30 away

creates per match

Fluminense W
1.00
Atlético Mineiro W
1.03

allows per match

Fluminense W
0.85
Atlético Mineiro W
2.03

finishing

Fluminense W+0.00on par
Atlético Mineiro W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense W ↓

Atlético Mineiro W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fluminense W or draw
76%
Fluminense W or Atlético Mineiro W
74%
Draw or Atlético Mineiro W
50%

Winning margin

Fluminense W wins by 2+
26%
Atlético Mineiro W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fluminense W 1+ goals
78%
Fluminense W 2+ goals
44%
Fluminense W 3+ goals
19%
Atlético Mineiro W 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Mineiro W 2+ goals
24%
Atlético Mineiro W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fluminense W (draw refunded)
68%
Atlético Mineiro W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

Atlético Mineiro W away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense W attack 1.00 + Atlético Mineiro W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.51

Atlético Mineiro W attack 1.03 + Fluminense W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fluminense W scores more
50%
level
26%
Atlético Mineiro W scores more
24%

Fluminense W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fluminense W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brasileiro Women: Fluminense W 3–0 Atlético Mineiro W

Fluminense W beat Atlético Mineiro W 3-0 in Brasileiro Women on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Luso-Brasileiro in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.