Atlético Mineiro W 1–1 Fluminense W: Result & Stats

Atlético Mineiro W

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fluminense W

5/1/2026

Brasileiro Women · Round 9Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Atlético Mineiro W36%

×Draw26%

Fluminense W39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Mineiro WExpected goals in this matchFluminense W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.40

Atlético Mineiro W

1.34

Fluminense W

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 22 away

1.04

creates per match

1.18

1.63

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Atlético Mineiro W

1.04

Fluminense W

1.18

allows per match

Atlético Mineiro W

1.63

Fluminense W

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Mineiro W+0.00on par

Fluminense W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Mineiro W ↓

Fluminense W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Atlético Mineiro W or draw

61%

Atlético Mineiro W or Fluminense W

74%

Draw or Fluminense W

64%

Winning margin

Atlético Mineiro W wins by 2+

16%

Fluminense W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Atlético Mineiro W 1+ goals

74%

Atlético Mineiro W 2+ goals

39%

Atlético Mineiro W 3+ goals

15%

Fluminense W 1+ goals

75%

Fluminense W 2+ goals

41%

Fluminense W 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Atlético Mineiro W (draw refunded)

48%

Fluminense W (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Mineiro W at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

Fluminense W away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Mineiro W attack 1.04 + Fluminense W defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.34

Fluminense W attack 1.18 + Atlético Mineiro W defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atlético Mineiro W scores more

36%

level

26%

Fluminense W scores more

39%

Fluminense W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fluminense W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff