Fluminense 0–1 Corinthians: Result & Stats

Fluminense

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Corinthians

Matheuzinho 73'

9/14/2025

Serie A · Round 23Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Fluminense52%

×Draw27%

Corinthians21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FluminenseExpected goals in this matchCorinthians

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.82

Fluminense

1.46

Corinthians

0.82

Fluminense creates 78% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 37 away

1.51

creates per match

0.79

0.86

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Fluminense

1.51

Corinthians

0.79

allows per match

Fluminense

0.86

Corinthians

1.41

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Fluminense+0.07on par

Corinthians+0.10scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense ↓

Corinthians →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Fluminense or draw

79%

Fluminense or Corinthians

73%

Draw or Corinthians

48%

Winning margin

Fluminense wins by 2+

26%

Corinthians wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fluminense 1+ goals

77%

Fluminense 2+ goals

43%

Fluminense 3+ goals

18%

Corinthians 1+ goals

56%

Corinthians 2+ goals

20%

Corinthians 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Fluminense (draw refunded)

71%

Corinthians (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.86 · 36 matches

Corinthians away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense attack 1.51 + Corinthians defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Corinthians attack 0.79 + Fluminense defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fluminense scores more

52%

level

27%

Corinthians scores more

21%

Fluminense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fluminense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Hugo Souza

Corinthians · G

7.9

Match Events

6'

PH Ganso

29'

Matheuzinho

42'

L. Acosta← PH Ganso

46'

Yuri Alberto← Vitinho

46'

Andre← Kayke

62'

Gui Negao

63'

Angel Romero← Gui Negao

63'

Talles Magno← Matheus Bidu

65'

Y. Soteldo← Lima

65'

Riquelme Felipe← S. Moreno

68'

Talles Magno

73'

Matheuzinho

75'

Hugo← Maycon

79'

Hugo Souza

85'

John Kennedy← F. Bernal

88'

Gustavo Henrique

88'

Renato Gaucho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FluminenseCorinthians

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots2

0.78Expected Goals (xG)0.05

5Corners4

16Fouls19

Shots

16Total Shots2

4On Target1

3Off Target0

9Blocked1

9Inside Box1

7Outside Box1

Passing

61%Possession39%

638Total Passes406

575Accurate Passes331

90%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.37Goals Prevented0.37

Discipline

16Fouls19

1Yellow Cards5

0Offsides1