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Corinthians vs Fluminense — Serie A 2026

Corinthians
Corinthians
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fluminense
Fluminense
J. Arias 83' (pen)
Rene 63'
4/16/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 4Neo Quimica Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

Corinthians47%
×Draw28%
Fluminense25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Corinthians
1.34
Fluminense
0.91

Corinthians creates 47% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 40 away

creates per match

Corinthians
1.49
Fluminense
0.89

allows per match

Corinthians
0.92
Fluminense
1.20

finishing

Corinthians+0.00on par
Fluminense-0.04on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Corinthians ↓

Fluminense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Corinthians or draw
75%
Corinthians or Fluminense
72%
Draw or Fluminense
53%

Winning margin

Corinthians wins by 2+
22%
Fluminense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Corinthians 1+ goals
74%
Corinthians 2+ goals
39%
Corinthians 3+ goals
15%
Fluminense 1+ goals
60%
Fluminense 2+ goals
23%
Fluminense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Corinthians (draw refunded)
65%
Fluminense (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Corinthians at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.92 · 39 matches

Fluminense away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.20 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Corinthians attack 1.49 + Fluminense defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Fluminense attack 0.89 + Corinthians defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Corinthians scores more
47%
level
28%
Fluminense scores more
25%

Corinthians at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Corinthians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
ReneFluminenseFluminense · D
8.6

Match Events

17'
Agustín Canobbio
46'
Nonato← Lima
61'
Matheuzinho
63'
Rene
66'
Talles Magno← A. Carrillo
77'
Maycon← Breno Bidon
77'
J. Martinez← Raniele
77'
H. Hernandez← Angel Romero
78'
Everaldo← G. Cano
78'
K. Serna← A. Canobbio
79'
Kevin SernaPenalty confirmed
81'
José Martínez
83'
J. AriasPenalty
89'
Thiago Santos← F. Bernal
90+3'
Nonato
90+6'
R. Lezcano← J. Arias

Possession

59%Corinthians

Shots

10Corinthians

Pass accuracy

51%Corinthians

Statistics

CorinthiansFluminense
Overview
59%Possession41%
10Total Shots8
0.82Expected Goals (xG)1.20
7Corners4
12Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots8
2On Target4
7Off Target2
1Blocked2
5Inside Box3
5Outside Box5
Passing
59%Possession41%
526Total Passes381
441Accurate Passes311
84%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
0.37Goals Prevented0.37
Discipline
12Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Corinthians vs Fluminense

Fluminense beat Corinthians 2-0 in Serie A on April 16, 2025.

Goals: Rene (63'), J. Arias (83' pen).

Corinthians controlled possession (59%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Neo Quimica Arena in Sao Paulo.