Fluminense 2–1 Ceara: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fluminense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ceara

Matheus Martins 54'

G. Cano 39'

Luiz Otávio 90+3'

7/9/2022

Serie A · Round 16Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Fluminense51%

×Draw27%

Ceara23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FluminenseExpected goals in this matchCeara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.88

Fluminense

1.46

Ceara

0.88

Fluminense creates 66% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 14 away

1.56

creates per match

0.87

0.88

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Fluminense

1.56

Ceara

0.87

allows per match

Fluminense

0.88

Ceara

1.35

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Fluminense-0.06on par

Ceara-0.16scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense ↓

Ceara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fluminense or draw

77%

Fluminense or Ceara

73%

Draw or Ceara

49%

Winning margin

Fluminense wins by 2+

25%

Ceara wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Fluminense 1+ goals

77%

Fluminense 2+ goals

43%

Fluminense 3+ goals

18%

Ceara 1+ goals

59%

Ceara 2+ goals

22%

Ceara 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Fluminense (draw refunded)

69%

Ceara (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.88 · 30 matches

Ceara away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.35 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense attack 1.56 + Ceara defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.46

Ceara attack 0.87 + Fluminense defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fluminense scores more

51%

level

27%

Ceara scores more

23%

Fluminense at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fluminense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Arias

Fluminense · M

8.0

Match Events

18'

Matheus Martins

39'

G. Cano↳ Caio Paulista

54'

Matheus Martins↳ G. Cano

64'

Zé Roberto← Lima

70'

Iury Castilho

73'

Felipe Melo← Nonato

73'

Martinelli← Ganso

77'

Felipe Melo

78'

Fred← G. Cano

81'

Cleber← Iury Castilho

87'

Messias

88'

Luccas Claro← J. Arias

88'

Dentinho← S. Mendoza

88'

Victor Luis← Bruno Pacheco

88'

Fernando Sobral← Rodrigo Lindoso

89'

Willian← Matheus Martins

90+6'

Richard Coelho

90+3'

Luiz Otávio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FluminenseCeara

Overview

59%Possession41%

18Total Shots17

9Corners10

16Fouls17

Shots

18Total Shots17

6On Target6

8Off Target4

4Blocked7

13Inside Box11

5Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

500Total Passes342

437Accurate Passes271

87%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2

Serie A: Fluminense 2–1 Ceara

Fluminense beat Ceara 2-1 in Serie A on July 9, 2022.

Goals: G. Cano (39'), Matheus Martins (54'), Luiz Otávio (90+3').

Fluminense controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.

Fluminense vs Ceara — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Fluminense 2–1 Ceara