Ceara 2–0 Fluminense: Result & Stats | Serie A

Ceara

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fluminense

Pedro Raul 72'

A. Galeano 38'

11/2/2025

Serie A · Round 31Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Ceara45%

×Draw31%

Fluminense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CearaExpected goals in this matchFluminense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

0.76

Ceara

1.16

Fluminense

0.76

Ceara creates 53% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

1.12

creates per match

0.77

0.74

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Ceara

1.12

Fluminense

0.77

allows per match

Ceara

0.74

Fluminense

1.20

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Ceara-0.03on par

Fluminense-0.07on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceara ↓

Fluminense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ceara or draw

76%

Ceara or Fluminense

69%

Draw or Fluminense

55%

Winning margin

Ceara wins by 2+

19%

Fluminense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ceara 1+ goals

69%

Ceara 2+ goals

32%

Ceara 3+ goals

11%

Fluminense 1+ goals

53%

Fluminense 2+ goals

18%

Fluminense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ceara (draw refunded)

65%

Fluminense (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceara at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.74 · 11 matches

Fluminense away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceara attack 1.12 + Fluminense defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Fluminense attack 0.77 + Ceara defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ceara scores more

45%

level

31%

Fluminense scores more

24%

Ceara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ceara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

Willian Machado

Ceara · D

7.9

Match Events

26'

John KennedyPenalty cancelled

38'

A. Galeano

45+3'

Vinicius Zanocelo

46'

Keno← K. Serna

46'

G. Fuentes← Rene

46'

Nonato← Hercules

56'

Fernandinho← Pedro Henrique

59'

Ignácio

72'

Pedro Raul↳ Vina

73'

Pedro Raul

74'

Everaldo← John Kennedy

77'

Thiago Santos← Lima

80'

Lucas Mugni← Vina

80'

Lourenco← Vinicius Zanocelo

84'

Marllon← Marcos Victor

85'

Paulo Baya← A. Galeano

86'

Marllon

90+2'

Pedro RaulGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CearaFluminense

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots4

1.12Expected Goals (xG)0.29

4Corners5

14Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots4

5On Target3

5Off Target0

4Blocked1

6Inside Box2

8Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

361Total Passes462

312Accurate Passes409

86%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

-0.17Goals Prevented-0.17

Discipline

14Fouls15

3Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Ceara vs Fluminense

Ceara beat Fluminense 2-0 in Serie A on November 2, 2025.

Goals: A. Galeano (38'), Pedro Raul (72').

Fluminense controlled possession (56%) and registered 4 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Fortaleza.

Ceara vs Fluminense — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Ceara vs Fluminense