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Fluminense vs Atletico Paranaense — Serie A 2026

Fluminense
Fluminense
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense
Nino 67'
Lima 11'
4/22/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 2Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Fluminense50%
×Draw27%
Atletico Paranaense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fluminense
1.41
Atletico Paranaense
0.85

Fluminense creates 66% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

creates per match

Fluminense
1.58
Atletico Paranaense
0.86

allows per match

Fluminense
0.85
Atletico Paranaense
1.24

finishing

Fluminense-0.06on par
Atletico Paranaense+0.10scores more

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense ↓

Atletico Paranaense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fluminense or draw
77%
Fluminense or Atletico Paranaense
73%
Draw or Atletico Paranaense
50%

Winning margin

Fluminense wins by 2+
25%
Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Fluminense 1+ goals
76%
Fluminense 2+ goals
41%
Fluminense 3+ goals
17%
Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals
57%
Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals
21%
Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fluminense (draw refunded)
69%
Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.85 · 27 matches

Atletico Paranaense away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.24 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense attack 1.58 + Atletico Paranaense defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Atletico Paranaense attack 0.86 + Fluminense defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fluminense scores more
50%
level
27%
Atletico Paranaense scores more
23%

Fluminense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fluminense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33
NinoFluminenseFluminense · D
7.9

Match Events

11'
Lima
19'
Pablo
24'
Hugo Moura← Léo Cittadini
35'
AndréGoal cancelled
45+3'
Samuel Xavier
46'
Vitor Bueno← Fernandinho
46'
Rômulo← Thiago Andrade
51'
Erick
61'
Pedrinho
63'
Christian← Erick
65'
Vitor Roque← T. Cuello
67'
Nino↳ Alexsander
73'
Vitor Mendes← Felipe Melo
73'
Thiago Santos← Lima
77'
PabloPenalty cancelled
79'
Keno
79'
Lelê← PH Ganso
80'
Gabriel Pirani← Keno
87'
John Kennedy← G. Cano
90+4'
Thiago Santos

Possession

62%Fluminense

Shots

14Fluminense

Pass accuracy

52%Fluminense

Statistics

FluminenseAtletico
Overview
62%Possession38%
14Total Shots10
0.75Expected Goals (xG)0.68
10Corners6
13Fouls20
Shots
14Total Shots10
4On Target1
6Off Target4
4Blocked5
6Inside Box4
8Outside Box6
Passing
62%Possession38%
559Total Passes342
491Accurate Passes280
88%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls20
3Yellow Cards3
3Offsides1

Serie A: Fluminense 2–0 Atletico Paranaense

Fluminense beat Atletico Paranaense 2-0 in Serie A on April 22, 2023.

Goals: Lima (11'), Nino (67').

Fluminense controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro.