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Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense — Serie A 2026

Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Fluminense
Fluminense
8/27/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 21Ligga Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Atletico Paranaense51%
×Draw27%
Fluminense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Paranaense
1.41
Fluminense
0.83

Atletico Paranaense creates 70% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 29 away

creates per match

Atletico Paranaense
1.62
Fluminense
0.76

allows per match

Atletico Paranaense
0.91
Fluminense
1.19

finishing

Atletico Paranaense-0.04on par
Fluminense-0.04on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Paranaense ↓

Fluminense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Atletico Paranaense or draw
78%
Atletico Paranaense or Fluminense
73%
Draw or Fluminense
49%

Winning margin

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+
25%
Fluminense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals
76%
Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals
41%
Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals
17%
Fluminense 1+ goals
56%
Fluminense 2+ goals
20%
Fluminense 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)
70%
Fluminense (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Paranaense at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Fluminense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.19 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.62 + Fluminense defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Fluminense attack 0.76 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Atletico Paranaense scores more
51%
level
27%
Fluminense scores more
22%

Atletico Paranaense at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense

Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense drew 2-2 in Serie A on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Ligga Arena in Curitiba, Paraná.