Fluminense 4–1 Atletico Nacional: Result & Stats

Fluminense

FT

4 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Atletico Nacional

João Pedro 33', 8', 3'

Luciano 12'

Hernán Barcos 18' (pen)

5/24/2019

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · 2nd RoundEstádio do Maracanã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fluminense73%

×Draw17%

Atletico Nacional10%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FluminenseExpected goals in this matchAtletico Nacional

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.73

Fluminense

2.33

Atletico Nacional

0.73

Fluminense creates 219% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

0.46

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Fluminense

2.00

Atletico Nacional

1.00

allows per match

Fluminense

0.46

Atletico Nacional

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fluminense+0.00on par

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense ↓

Atletico Nacional →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fluminense or draw

90%

Fluminense or Atletico Nacional

83%

Draw or Atletico Nacional

27%

Winning margin

Fluminense wins by 2+

50%

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Fluminense 1+ goals

90%

Fluminense 2+ goals

67%

Fluminense 3+ goals

41%

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals

52%

Atletico Nacional 2+ goals

17%

Atletico Nacional 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Fluminense (draw refunded)

88%

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.46 · 13 matches

Atletico Nacional away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense attack 2.00 + Atletico Nacional defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Atletico Nacional attack 1.00 + Fluminense defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Fluminense scores more

73%

level

17%

Atletico Nacional scores more

10%

Fluminense at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Fluminense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

João Pedro

Fluminense · F

10.0

Match Events

3'

João Pedro↳ Yony González

8'

João Pedro↳ Danielzinho

12'

Luciano↳ João Pedro

18'

Hernán BarcosPenalty

33'

João Pedro

37'

Yony GonzálezMissed penalty

40'

Nicolás Hernández

46'

Sebastian Yabur← Juan Pablo Ramírez

55'

Caio Henrique

60'

Sebastian Yabur

70'

Marcos Paulo← Luciano

77'

Igor Julião← Danielzinho

84'

Pablo Ceppelini

86'

Brayan Rovira

90'

Pablo Dyego← João Pedro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FluminenseAtletico

Overview

56%Possession44%

22Total Shots5

10Corners1

15Fouls10

Shots

22Total Shots5

12On Target4

6Off Target1

4Blocked0

20Inside Box3

2Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

537Total Passes424

478Accurate Passes345

89%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

15Fouls10

1Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2