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Atletico Nacional vs Fluminense — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Atletico Nacional
Atletico Nacional
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fluminense
Fluminense
Hernán Barcos 4'
5/30/2019CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · 2nd RoundEstadio Atanasio Girardot

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Atletico Nacional36%
×Draw28%
Fluminense36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Nacional
1.18
Fluminense
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Atletico Nacional
1.50
Fluminense
1.38

allows per match

Atletico Nacional
1.00
Fluminense
0.85

finishing

Atletico Nacional+0.00on par
Fluminense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Nacional ↓

Fluminense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Atletico Nacional or draw
64%
Atletico Nacional or Fluminense
72%
Draw or Fluminense
64%

Winning margin

Atletico Nacional wins by 2+
15%
Fluminense wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Atletico Nacional 1+ goals
69%
Atletico Nacional 2+ goals
33%
Atletico Nacional 3+ goals
12%
Fluminense 1+ goals
70%
Fluminense 2+ goals
33%
Fluminense 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Atletico Nacional (draw refunded)
50%
Fluminense (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Nacional at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Fluminense away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Nacional attack 1.50 + Fluminense defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.18

Fluminense attack 1.38 + Atletico Nacional defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Atletico Nacional scores more
36%
level
28%
Fluminense scores more
36%

Atletico Nacional at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Atletico Nacional will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
Hernán BarcosAtletico NacionalAtletico Nacional · F
8.1

Match Events

4'
Hernán Barcos↳ Vladimir Hernández
13'
Brandon Caicedo
38'
Hayen Palacios← Brandon Caicedo
45'
Luciano
67'
Deiver Machado← Pablo Ceppelini
76'
Igor Julião← Luciano
79'
Aldo Leão Ramírez← Sebastian Gomez
84'
Airton← Danielzinho
86'
Igor Julião
88'
Caio← Ganso

Possession

56%Atletico

Shots

20Atletico

Pass accuracy

52%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoFluminense
Overview
56%Possession44%
20Total Shots9
3Corners4
14Fouls11
Shots
20Total Shots9
4On Target2
12Off Target6
4Blocked1
9Inside Box7
11Outside Box2
Passing
56%Possession44%
492Total Passes364
401Accurate Passes280
82%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls11
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Atletico Nacional vs Fluminense

Atletico Nacional beat Fluminense 1-0 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 30, 2019.

Goals: Hernán Barcos (4').

Atletico Nacional controlled possession (56%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellin.