Flota Świnoujście 0–1 Cartusia Kartuzy

Flota Świnoujście

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Cartusia Kartuzy

10/12/2024

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Flota Świnoujście39%

×Draw24%

Cartusia Kartuzy37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flota ŚwinoujścieExpected goals in this matchCartusia Kartuzy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.50

Flota Świnoujście

1.53

Cartusia Kartuzy

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 59 away

1.40

creates per match

1.29

1.72

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Flota Świnoujście

1.40

Cartusia Kartuzy

1.29

allows per match

Flota Świnoujście

1.72

Cartusia Kartuzy

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flota Świnoujście+0.00on par

Cartusia Kartuzy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flota Świnoujście ↓

Cartusia Kartuzy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Flota Świnoujście or draw

63%

Flota Świnoujście or Cartusia Kartuzy

76%

Draw or Cartusia Kartuzy

61%

Winning margin

Flota Świnoujście wins by 2+

19%

Cartusia Kartuzy wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Flota Świnoujście 1+ goals

78%

Flota Świnoujście 2+ goals

45%

Flota Świnoujście 3+ goals

20%

Cartusia Kartuzy 1+ goals

78%

Cartusia Kartuzy 2+ goals

44%

Cartusia Kartuzy 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Flota Świnoujście (draw refunded)

51%

Cartusia Kartuzy (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flota Świnoujście at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

Cartusia Kartuzy away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.66 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flota Świnoujście attack 1.40 + Cartusia Kartuzy defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.53

Cartusia Kartuzy attack 1.29 + Flota Świnoujście defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Flota Świnoujście scores more

39%

level

24%

Cartusia Kartuzy scores more

37%

Flota Świnoujście at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Flota Świnoujście will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff